كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

صفحه اصلی / دوازدهمین كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

Structural Analysis of Resilience Factors in Iran's Perishable Food Supply Chains Using Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy DEMATEL

نویسندگان :

Seyed Mahdi Hosseini Sarkhosh¹

1- دانشگاه گرمسار

کلمات کلیدی :

Supply chain resilience،Perishable food،Fuzzy Delphi،Fuzzy DEMATEL،Cold chain،Cause-effect analysis،Iran

چکیده :

Perishable food supply chains must absorb disruptions while simultaneously controlling time- and temperature-sensitive deterioration. This study identifies and structures the resilience factors relevant to Iran's perishable food supply chains using a three-phase expert-based design. A structured literature review generated 15 candidate factors. Eleven experts from food manufacturing, cold-chain logistics, retail/distribution, risk management, food safety and academia evaluated the factors through Fuzzy Delphi; 12 met the predefined score and consensus criteria. The validated set was then analyzed using a group Fuzzy DEMATEL model that retained triangular fuzzy numbers through aggregation, normalization and total-relation calculation before centroid defuzzification. Emergency preparedness and risk management had the highest prominence and the largest positive net relation. Cold-chain infrastructure reliability ranked second in prominence, while collaboration and coordination and information sharing and visibility also had substantial positive net relations. Quality and food-safety assurance, strategic inventory and buffer capacity, logistics and route flexibility, and demand sensing and forecasting formed the effect group. Leave-one-expert-out analysis showed high rank stability and no cause-effect sign changes. The results suggest prioritizing preparedness, collaboration, information visibility, cold-chain continuity and traceability because these factors occupy upstream positions in the expert-perceived influence structure.