كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

صفحه اصلی / دوازدهمین كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

Minimax-Regret Tactical Formation Selection in Football with Coach Risk Preferences Under Opponent Uncertainty

نویسندگان :

Behnam Karimi¹

1- دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

کلمات کلیدی :

football analytics،tactical formation،minimax regret،decision under uncertainty،coaching decision support،tactical risk

چکیده :

Tactical formation selection in football is a pre-match decision under uncertainty about opponent behavior. This paper proposes a minimax-regret framework with coach risk preferences that represents candidate formations as decisions and opponent playing styles as scenarios. A tactical performance matrix quantifies formation effectiveness, while scenario-dependent regret measures opportunity loss relative to the best formation in each scenario. The minimax-regret rule is extended by a coach risk-attitude parameter that balances nominal tactical performance against maximum regret. A Team A-Team B case study evaluates four formations against High Press, Low Block, Possession, and Counterattack scenarios. The results show that 4-3-3 maximizes nominal performance but has the largest maximum regret, whereas 4-2-3-1 provides the lowest maximum regret. Sensitivity analysis identifies a risk-aversion threshold of 0.1875 at which the preferred formation changes from 4-3-3 to 4-2-3-1, and a second analysis shows how formation rankings change as uncertainty in the opponent profile increases. The framework links football analytics, decision-making under uncertainty, and coaching behavior in an interpretable decision-support structure