كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

صفحه اصلی / دهمین كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

A mathematical model for the project portfolio selection and scheduling problem under uncertainty

نویسندگان :

Ali Namazian¹

1- دانشگاه کاشان

کلمات کلیدی :

Project portfolio selection،Project scheduling،Uncertainty،Risk،Risk response strategy،Simulation

چکیده :

In this study, a mathematical model has been developed to address project selection and scheduling problem under risk conditions. Projects face various risks that can impact their performance objectives, including time, cost, and quality, potentially causing the project to end with different costs, durations, or quality levels than initially predicted. Therefore, strategies must be implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of risks when they occur. Additionally, most organizations face budget constraints in selecting and executing projects and designing risk response strategies. Indeed, since implementing any risk response strategy incurs costs, the number of strategies that can be selected is limited. Thus, an approach is required for project selection and the choice of risk response strategies. The mathematical model presented in this research is capable of selecting the best risk response strategies while determining the optimal set of projects and scheduling of their activities to complete the project portfolio as quickly as possible. This research presents a simulation based mathematical model for project selection and scheduling problem, considering the benefits of project execution, the internal risk network structure within projects, and the network of project activities, while also choosing risk response strategies for the selected projects. The developed model is validated by an instance confirming its efficiency for application in real cases.