كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

صفحه اصلی / دوازدهمین كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

A System Dynamics Approach to Budget Replanning and Adaptability under Uncertainty in Holding Companies

نویسندگان :

Nima Pourmohammadreza¹ Seyed Farbod Farnia² Leila Abbaspour³ Mahdi Heydari⁴ Amin Vahidi Monfared⁵

1- دانشگاه صنعتی شریف 2- شرکت مادر تخصصی توسعه معادن و صنایع معدنی خاورمیانه (میدکو) 3- شرکت مادر تخصصی توسعه معادن و صنایع معدنی خاورمیانه (میدکو) 4- شرکت مادر تخصصی توسعه معادن و صنایع معدنی خاورمیانه (میدکو) 5- دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

کلمات کلیدی :

System Dynamics،Budgeting،Holding Company،Management Control،Causal Loop Diagram،SODA،Loop Dominance،Replanning

چکیده :

Holding companies confront compounding volatility, inflation, exchange-rate shocks, sanctions, and uneven subsidiary performance, conditions that routinely render an annual budget obsolete within months. Replanning, the conventional response, is typically treated as a costless corrective action; this paper argues that it is more accurately understood as an endogenous component of the feedback system within which it operates. Drawing on System Dynamics and management control research, we construct a causal loop diagram comprising twenty-seven variables that link exogenous stability, forecast error, plan and budget variance, revision frequency, execution quality, and a holding company's cash flow and financing position. Variables and contested polarities were elicited through interviews with twenty-two managers using the SODA cognitive-mapping method, rather than derived from the literature alone. The diagram resolves into eight loops, each verified link by link: three balancing and five reinforcing, including revision overload, decision degradation, and a financing-and-capability engine. The central claim, which follows directly from the verified polarities rather than from simulation, is that whether replanning stabilizes or destabilizes a firm depends on which loops dominate at a given revision frequency. Beyond a threshold determined jointly by response delay, effort depletion, and the sensitivity of decision quality to variance, the stabilizing loops reverse and begin to work against the system. Because execution quality closes back through cash flow, solvency, and financing capacity, revision overload erodes the very resources required to execute the revised plan, a mechanism illustrated through a published bank case. The paper argues that while budgetary flexibility is beneficial up to a point, excessive flexibility ultimately proves more harmful than helpful. Rather than merely adjusting the frequency of budget updates, the paper proposes governance levers that operate by shifting which loops dominate the system.