كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

صفحه اصلی / یازدهمین كنفرانس بين المللی مهندسی صنايع و سيستم ها

Intelligent Project Control 4.0: Integrating Explainable AI with Stochastic EDM

نویسندگان :

Mohammad Fattah¹ Siamak Haji Yakhchali² Narges Ghobadi³

1- علم و صنعت 2- دانشگاه تهران 3- دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر

کلمات کلیدی :

Stochastic project control،Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)،Earned Duration Management (EDM)،Machine Learning،SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations)،Shapley values

چکیده :

The research establishes an original framework which combines Explainable Machine Learning (XML) with Earned Duration Management (EDM) metrics to achieve project control and precise project duration prediction. The low success rate of projects with substantial funding and the opaque nature of machine learning models compared to traditional EDM static formulas create a clear need for a new approach. The case study presents a three-layered system which combines Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty modeling with Gradient Boosting prediction and SHAP explainability. The proposed method creates training data through 50,000 simulations to enable both forward-looking proactive risk management and backward-looking root cause identification of deviations. The integration of EDM with simulation and XAI produces more accurate and interpretable predictions which increases project managers' trust in the system. The research establishes a method to convert project control from its current reactive state into a proactive system.